Malaysian Air Flight 370 -- Say WHAT??

Ever since the Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared last weekend, there is general confusion about what really happened.  Stories of this, that, and the other.  Stolen passports.  An Iranian asylum-seeker as one of the passengers with one of the stolen passports.  Plane fares paid by cash.  No radar contact for 90 minutes.  Cell phones that still ring and people on the QQ messenger still showing thier status online.  Families asking that the cells be located, and no one official wants to follow up on those requests.  No debris field.  No black box pings.  The plane veering off course by hundreds of miles.  No Mayday calls.  A copilot who in the past had allowed women "friends" into the cockpit while in flight.  No known terrorist groups sending messages out "We did it!  Look at us!"  Malaysian civil and military authorities not on the same page.

Governments all over the region from Thailand to Malaysia to Vietnam to China dispatching resources to investigate, finding nothing.  Now, today, Malaysia has asked India for help, and Vietnam is figuring to close further investigation for lack of information.

Sorry, it ain't working for me.

I've been listening to news reports and talk shows with pilots who are intimately familiar with the Boeing 777s, as well as being intimately familiar with routes flying in Southeast Asia.  The questions hosts and callers asked were the same as I'd be asking.  The answers were quite interesting.

First, the Triple 7 has multiple redundancies.  Fail-safes on top of fail-safes.  One system goes kaput, another keeps going.  But yet... Transponders, black boxes, radio contact, debris field... nothing.

What about the transponders?  Can they be turned off by the pilot or copilot?  Yes, there's a switch.  No problem at all to turn them off.  But, why would a pilot want to turn them off.  They wouldn't.  The transponders help maintain safe distances between aircraft as well as continue to allow air traffic controllers to monitor positions and see if anything's wrong.

Could the transponder be turned off without the consent of the pilot or copilot?  Not likely, unless the cockpit had been taken over and the flight crew was no longer in control.

If the plane had crashed into the Straits of Malacca, its last known location (now disputed by the Malaysian Air Force), the black boxes would have sent a signal indicating that salt water had gotten to them.  If it had crashed on land, the boxes would also emit a signal.  Not only that, try getting a cell phone just a little bit wet.  Stops working real quick, doesn't it?  How could they still be online?

One can reasonably rule out a mid-air explosion as well.  If a hole were to be made in the fuselage somewhere, it wouldn't necessarily cause an explosion.  The most likely occurrence would be an "explosive decompression," meaning all the air would be sucked out and unsecured objects (or people) might be sucked out into the atmosphere through the opening.  Oxygen masks would drop, and some member of the flight crew would undoubtedly sound a "Mayday" distress call while others of the crew attempted to maintain some kind of control over the craft.

Quite simply, no explosion, no debris field.  No oil or fuel slick.  Zip.  Zilch.  Nada.

This is just a hunch.  If the truth turns out to be something else, then, it's along the same lines of whatever else is being disseminated.

I'll come out and say it.  I'm thinking it's either a terrorist action or a false flag.  And the fact that no known or unknown terror group has claimed it...

Don't ask me who, what, or why.  I don't have a clue, but there are enough nutburgers running around the world to pull off a stunt like this. 

I'm guessing somehow whoever the bad actors were gained access to the cockpit and either replaced or coerced the flight crew to serve their purposes.  A fisherman had reported seeing a jumbo jet flying low over the Straits.  If that's the case, they could be invisible to radar, literally, "flying under it."  The transponder, the radio, shut off.  Some airstrip, somewhere, could accommodate its safe landing, and the plane has an over 9,000 mile range.  The black boxes would not have signaled any problem resulting from a crash.

Probably when the plane landed, all passengers on board were still alive and well.  What purpose do they serve?  Hostages?  Innocent by-standers?  Are they still alive and kicking?  I pray for their safety.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.  IF we ever find out the truth.  I don't trust the media to do that.

Is It High Time (Pun Intended) for Delaware to Legalize Pot?

Please note:  This is NOT a post about whether marijuana should be legalized.  That's a discussion we can have at another time.  For the record, I do fully support its legalization.  However, going from the assumption that it will happen in time, would it be a good idea for Delaware and its citizens?

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One of the surprises of the 2012 election came in the form of successful voter initiatives in two states, Washington, and Colorado, which legalized both the possession and use of marijuana on a recreational basis.

Although the Federal Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) originally made noises about vigorously enforcing federal marijuana laws in those two states, it appears that a change of heart has happened.  President Obama's recent statements on marijuana make any such enforcement unlikely at this point.

Colorado's legal shops opened up on January 1, 2014, and sales were quite brisk the first day, according to news reports.  Although the state doesn't have official totals yet, it's estimated that the first week had more than $5 million in sales.  See the blurb here.

Washington State's Initiative 502 legalized possession of a small amount and designated the State's Liquor Control Board to develop regulations and licensing for retail establishments by December 1, 2013.  Those establishments are not yet open.

The State of Delaware does not have the initiative process, which would allow citizens to offer legislation or Constitutional amendments such as these to Delaware voters for passage.   The only way change can happen in Delaware is, therefore, through the General Assembly.

Whether it's wishful thinking or closer to reality, marijuana legalization could be on the legislative docket in Dover this year.  Rumor has it that such a bill is being drafted, but to date, no such legislation has been filed.  It's still early in the session, so anything might happen.

I took the opportunity to read Colorado's Prop 64, which you can read here.  It's a rather comprehensive set of provisions that will assign regulation to the Department of Revenue, or its successor, which:

• Provide for Marijuana Testing Facilities to ensure safety and potency.
• Provide for Marijuana Cultivation Facilities, establishing application and license fees.
• Provide for Marijuana Retail Stores, establishing application and license fees.

Further provisions do the following:

1. Restrict age, like alcohol, to 21 years and above.  Sales and/or transfers to minors would still be prohibited.
2. Keep laws prohibiting driving under influence of marijuana.
3. Legalize industrial hemp, a cousin that has less than 0.3% THC, the active ingredient in marijuana, and has many other uses, such as clothing, food, and rope.
4. Allow up to one ounce of marijuana for personal possession, and growing up to 6 plants for personal use, no more than three of which can be mature and flowering.
5. Remove penalties for possession of paraphernalia for smoking or otherwise ingesting.
6. Set a 15% excise tax, the first $40 Million each year to be used for school construction.
7. They do not require an employer to permit sale, use, transfer, or display of marijuana during working hours.
8. Permit employers, property owners, institutions, etc, to continue to regulate or restrict possession and use of marijuana on their property.

Kinda hits all the bases, doesn't it?   Safety, revenue, age restrictions, employer protections.

Does Delaware need extra revenue?  Sure.  Would this be one way to accomplish it?  Sure.  With Delaware's corporate headquarter status, could marijuana-based corporations not set up here, pay fees, and compete?  Why not?

A lot of states are looking at following Colorado's example, including our neighbor, Maryland. By moving forward to get the infrastructure begun, we can build on what they started and make it suitable for Delaware.

Do we have legislators who would introduce such a bill for us?  Can it be done this session? And, once such a bill would get introduced, do we have the manpower to lobby for its passage?

I don't have the answers for that, but, if someone does, please take it and run with it!  I'm certainly willing to help!

"The Market" - Can It REALLY Work?

You may hear the term "The Market" spoken in hushed, reverential tones by some of its ardent apostles.

Others may say, "The Market will take care of _________"  (fill in the blank) in a discussion on various issues of the day.

Others still may have no opinion about it.

But many opponents will charge "The Market doesn't work.  Look at _________ as an example!"  

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Before trying to settle any arguments, let's all agree on a simple definition, one we learned in Econ 101 way back when. 

In a perfect world, "The Market" derives its power from arms-length transactions, where:

    1)  A willing seller has something to offer to another party for sale  (a widget)

    2)  A willing buyer has a need for something that he does not have  (said widget)

    3)  Both buyer and seller can negotiate on a price to transfer ownership 

          a)  The seller does not have to sell the widget to a particular buyer

          b)  The buyer does not have to buy the widget from a particular seller

          c)  Both parties may come to an agreement and complete the transaction  OR

          d)  Either party may walk away and the transaction is not completed.

    4)  There are no outside parties to the transaction exercising any influence on the transaction.

Does that about sum it up?   Can we start from this point?  It's pretty much the definition of an unregulated market.

Do such virtually unregulated markets exist, even today?  Yes, I'd submit that "The Market" is clearly evidenced in a very popular, very common form:  eBay (tm).  For those of you not familiar with eBay, the willing seller (#1 above) has the ability to set the price beforehand ("Buy it Now") or set a very low price that will be bid up by various willing buyers (#2).  These buyers may bid up to an amount of their choosing or "watch" the item as it goes along.  Watchers have the opportunity to step in and bid at any time.

I'm a "hard money" kind of guy.  I like the idea of gold and silver as measures of value, and, since gold is out of my reach, I can buy silver.

Doing a search on eBay (tm), I can find many sellers wanting to offer silver items for sale. Silver is offered in a number of ways:  bullion, government-issued coins, or "junk silver," just to name three.

Bullion is generally 99.9% pure (.999 fine) silver, can be in rounds (coin), bar, or other formats.  The rounds are usually 1 Troy ounce, about the size of an old silver dollar.  Weights vary, from as small as 1 gram up to 100 Troy ounces or more.

Government-issued coins, such as the US Silver Eagle, the Canada Maple Leaf, the Mexican Libertad, the Austrian Philharmonic and many others, are generally .999 fine or better, and usually, but not always weigh 1 Troy ounce.  Although there IS usually a denomination marked on them (the Silver Eagle is marked $1.00), the melt value is much higher.

"Junk silver" is the term used for US coins (and others) with silver content.  US dollars, halves, quarters and dimes prior to 1965 were 90% silver.  A Troy ounce of junk silver is usually about $1.20 or $1.30 face value in the silver.

OK, now that your eyes are glazed over, here goes!  Let's assume that the silver price is $20.50 per Troy ounce.

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Willing seller Joe Blow is offering a 1921 US Peace Dollar for $30.00 on eBay (tm).  He set the price upfront rather than chance the auction.  Joe's listing is going to end in the next 5 minutes. No one has bid on his coin, and no one is watching it. 

          As a willing buyer, I decided to pass on Joe's offering.  I didn't bother to watch it, I 

      don't care.  Why?  The 1921 silver dollar is fairly common, so the numismatic value,

      (that offered by a coin dealer) may be $22.00 or so, nowhere near the price he's asking.

      The melt value, then, what that item would be worth if melted down) is not even the spot

      price for silver, since the coin is less that 1 Troy ounce, and only 90% silver.

As a result, I and many other potential buyers decided to pass (#3d above), and Joe will still have his coin at the end of the listing.

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Willing seller Candy Barr would like to sell a 1 Troy ounce silver Philharmonic coin.  She decided to let it go for what the market would bear and priced her opening bid at $0.99.  Her listing will end in the next 5 minutes.  So far, there have been 7 bids on the coin, 3 people are watching it.  The current bid price is $22.95.

          I happen to like the Philharmonics, so I'm interested.  I'm willing to pay a little bit 

     extra because it's a minted coin, and, because of that, it's universally recognized as a 

     standard of value and worth a little more than just melt value.  I decide to put a max bid

     in of $25.80.

When the auction ends, I am the high bidder.  I pay for the coin through my account, and the transaction is completed.  Here, #3c above happened.  The seller agreed to let it go for an auction price.  The buyer (me) agreed to purchase it at a certain price.  The auction ended, we concluded the deal.

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Sometimes, you just gotta wonder what the offering seller was thinking (or smoking) before setting his "Buy it Now" price.  Here's a good example:

Willing seller Notta Klewe is offering two one gram pieces of .999 silver for sale.  She sets the "Buy it Now" price at $6.95, and will charge $0.99 for postage.  She has received NO bids and has had 0 watchers.  Why?

She's priced so far out of the market and doesn't realize it.  Here's why:  a Troy ounce is 31.2 grams.  She's offering 2 grams for sale.  She's basically asking a 1500% premium on her tiny quantity of silver.  Add to that, her offering can be mailed in an envelope with a simple first class stamp and not come anywhere near being overweight or oversized.  Nope, her offering didn't go anywhere, either.

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There is virtually no regulation on eBay (tm), except on certain items, e.g. guns and ammo, that cannot be sold.  All sellers agree to offer merchandise that is salable and genuine, all buyers agree to pay for the items they win.  There are consequences for non-compliance, and they are enforced, so the marketplace there is generally safe.

So, based on the definition we used at the beginning, the market worked and worked well.

Joe Blow was willing to sell an item, but he wanted a specific price for it.  No buyers were willing to meet the price he set, so no transaction occurred.

Candy Barr was willing to let her Philharmonic go at auction price.  I was willing to offer a fair price, and I outbid other people who had also offered to buy the piece.  The coin changed hands.

Notta Klewe met the same fate as her pal Joe Blow.  She was a more extreme case.

So, to wrap it all up.  CAN "The Market" work?  Certainly!  Is eBay (tm) the only place it does? By no means, but it's a sterling example.

The topic of "The Market" will undoubtedly resurface in another post... or two... I welcome your responses!